NELA RISK calculator disclaimer

  • The NELA risk calculation tool provides an estimate of the risk of death within 30 days of emergency abdominal surgery. It has been developed using the data gathered from patients entered into the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit between 2014 and 2016. The model is an estimate taking into account the risks of the procedure and information about the patients. Not every factor which may affect outcome is included and so there may be other patient, surgical and process factors which will influence the risk of death.
  • The NELA risk prediction tool has been shown to be more accurate than the P-POSSUM calculator for patients undergoing emergency laparotomy in the UK but will be reviewed at regular intervals for accuracy against contemporary patient populations.
  • The NELA risk tool should not be used in isolation but as part of the overall clinical decision making process to aid multidisciplinary discussion and discussions with the patient and their family.
  • NELA is not responsible for decisions made by health care professionals and patients which are made based on the estimations provided by NELA or liable for any outcomes of these patients.

The NELA risk prediction website has achieved CE marking from the Medicines & Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA). This means it conforms with the legal requirements for medical devices under the requirements of the Medical Devices Directive. See for further information.

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